I am not at all happy writing this post. But when I feel like this, I have to.
Will India triumph on 2 April 2011 ?
My Heart wants to say "Yes", but the mind screams "NO" and silences the heart !
Why ? Let me give my reasons why other teams stand better chances.
This World Cup is like a Marathon Race. It is quite long, as long as some of my posts. The last team standing on the podium will be the one with the maximum endurance. And India don't look like they possess it.
Let me explain why I rate the chances of India lower than other teams.
1] South Africa: For me, they are the favorites this time. They have played good amount of Cricket and almost all are fit. Their Batting might is perhaps second only to India. But they have the best bowling army with enough ammunition to exploit any conditions. Bowling and quality of fielding will make the difference on Subcontinental pitches. So they start as favorites.
Key Players: Kallis, who else ? Steyn and Amla.
2] England: Forget Ryan ten Doeschate. Forget 6-1. That was a team drained after the monumental Ashes win. England will be a different team at the WC-11. They too have a fabulous batting line up, perhaps third strongest. But it is the bowling and the Swann factor that will make the difference. They seem to find ready replacements for any injured bowler. So, they are my second finalists.
Key Players: This could be ODI Swann song for Peitersen and Paul Collingwood !
3] Sri Lanka: Their middle order is nowhere near that of India or South Africa. But the 'Big Two' seem to deliver most of the times when it comes to ICC World Cup. But what makes them hot is the sheer quality and variety of their bowling attack. No team can boast of having every type of bowler except the Lions. How the middle order fairs will decide their fate in the knock out stages.
Key Players: Malinga and Murali.
4] Australia: Forget ThrAshes. Forget practice matches. Aussies are a different team in ODI Cricket. Absence of Mussey will hurt them. Else I would have put them at No. 2. They have two vital players, Watson and Lee and they will leave a big impact on WC-11. And never discount Ponting. Bowling is much better than India and that gives them the edge.
Key Players: Shane Watson and Brett Lee.
5] Pakistan: Cornered from all sides thanks to match and spot-fixing and players not mixing; Pakistan nevertheless is a team on the accent. They play their best when they are pressed hard. Bowling looks impressive even though a tad erratic. But if they can bowl out teams after conceding 25 wides, who cares ? Yunis Khan will be the fulcrum of this low on experience but high on Adrenaline Team.
Key Players: Any one from the 11 !
6] India: Batting card looks like a dream. But bowling causes nightmares. Sreesanth can win and lose matches single-handed. More often he manages the second. Ashish Nehra does not inspire enough confidence either. Munaf had a decent outing against Bangladesh. But can he bowl as well defending 270 ?
Bhajji doesn't really know his role in the team. Is he supposed to control runs or take wickets ? Zaheer can be fit and unfit even before you can pronounce the name Isha Sharvani. And then the Yuveraj Singh issue, is he a batsman who can bowl a bit or a bowler who can bat a bit ?
It is 'All is well' for Men in Blue when at least 2 of the top 4 score big. But that doesn't happen everyday. And there lies the problem. When the Top order falters, India lose the plot. So, for the miracle to happen, Sachin, Viru, Gauty and Virat should fire in every single match. Will that happen ?
If India have to win in spite of all these short-comings, Zaheer and Bhajji will have to deliver consistently and big time apart from the Top order !
S-Pun Doctor
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